Planning under Uncertainty: II. A Methodology for Robustness Analysis

Abstract

A companion paper found that the principal planning methodologies embody procedures which tend to generate plans which are inflexible; and identified characteristics which a methodology for flexible planning should exhibit. In this paper an integrated methodology incorporating these features is proposed. Centred on robustness analysis it is non-optimising, being based on the establishment of feasible alternative plans; it accepts future uncertainty as a defining characteristic and attempts to keep options open; and it can facilitate participation. The potential advantages and disadvantages of the methodology are discussed; and some technical options in robustness analysis are presented in an Appendix.