Forecasting in Short-Term Planning and Management for a Casino Buffet Restaurant

Abstract

SUMMARY Demand fluctuation accounts for an important consideration in a restaurant's daily operational decisions. Good short-term planning and management require accurate forecasts of daily demand. The objective of this study is three-fold: (1) to apply, evaluate, and compare different methods of forecasting customer counts for an on-premises buffet restaurant of a local casino in Las Vegas, (2) to describe and propose a combined forecasting approach for this casino buffet restaurant, and (3) to explore the concept of revenue and capacity management for this buffet restaurant. Eight forecasting models were tested and evaluated by two common error measures. The results suggest that a double moving average model was the most accurate model with the smallest MAPE and RMSPE. Extensive discussions on forecasting and planning/management in buffet operations are provided along with recommended future research.