Estimating time of arrival in heavy weather conditions

Abstract

This paper investigates’the problem of computing an aircraft’s Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at the runway given that the aircraft is likely to maneuver around hazardous weather. The problem is solved for the TRACON airspace, and specifically to assist the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) to establish an aircraft’s ETA under heavy weather conditions. The ETA problem is solved using a probabilistic model and information imbedded in an Optimal Path Map (OPM). The OPM, a concept from computational geometry literature, is constructed using a weather avoidance algorithm. The weather avoidance algorithm considers the likely paths that the aircraft may follow from a metering fix location to the runway. The ETA problem is solved using a model for metering fix crossing, aircraft dynamics limits, pilot and controller workload considerations, constraints from Air Traffic Control (ATC) arrival vs departure corridors, and fixed route legs for turning to the final approach to the runway.