Has TRISS become an anachronism? A comparison of mortality between the National Trauma Data Bank and Major Trauma Outcome Study databases

Abstract

There is a steady trend toward improved O/E survival in the Pennsylvania database with each passing year, suggesting that the TRISS is drifting out of calibration. It is likely that improvements in care account for these changes. For the TRISS to remain an accurate outcome prediction model, new coefficients would need to be calculated periodically to keep up with trends in trauma care. This requirement for occasional updating is likely to be a requirement of any trauma prediction model, but because many other deficiencies in the TRISS have been reported, we think that rather than updating the TRISS, it would be more productive to replace the TRISS with a modern statistical model.