Concepedia

Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method

David L. Ronis, J. Frank Yates

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · 1987 · 236 citations · 20 references

Open access

Concepts

Social SciencesBehavioral SciencesPsychologyDecision TheoryPsychometricsHofstee MethodJudgment AssessmentProbability JudgmentPsychological AssessmentTest ReliabilityTest ValidityConsistencyIndividual Behavioral ConsistencyJudgment ReliabilityJudgment ScaleJudgment-accuracy CorrelationLikelihood JudgmentNumerical Probability JudgmentStandard Error Of Judgment

References

20

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman · 1975 · 23.1K citations

Business, Decision Sciences, Psychology +17

VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

Glenn W. Brier · Monthly Weather Review · 1950 · 5.3K citations

Business, Mathematics, Meteorology +10

Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence.

Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Slovic, Sarah Lichtenstein · Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance · 1977 · 1.4K citations

Social Sciences, Psychology, Social Psychology +17

Reasons for confidence.

Asher Koriat, Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff · Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Learning & Memory · 1980 · 1.4K citations

Social Sciences, Psychology, Social Psychology +11

A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

Allan H. Murphy · Journal of applied meteorology · 1973 · 1.1K citations · Full text

Business, Mathematics, Forecasting +15