A Markov game model for space threat prediction

Abstract

This paper proposes a Markov (stochastic) game theoretic level-3 data fusion approach for defensive counterspace. Based on the Markov game theory and the advanced knowledge infrastructures for information fusion, the approach can enhance threat detection, validation, and mitigation for future counterspace and space situational awareness (SSA) operations. A Markov game is constructed to model the possible interactions between the dynamic and intelligent threats and friendly satellites, and effects of various space weather conditions. To systematically solve the complicated Markov game, a conversion from general Markov games into several Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) as well as some static bi-matrix games is provided. The proposed Markov game model and innovative solution are demonstrated in a numerical example.