Integrated Mapping of Establishment Risk for Emerging Vector-Borne Infections: A Case Study of Canine Leishmaniasis in Southwest France

Abstract

To our knowledge, this is the first analysis that combines a vector abundance prediction model, based on remotely-sensed variables measured at different levels of spatial resolution, with a fully mechanistic process-based temperature-dependent R(0) model. The resulting maps should be considered as proofs-of-principle rather than as ready-to-use risk maps, since validation is currently not possible. The described approach, based on integrating several modeling methods, provides a useful new set of tools for the study of the risk of outbreaks of vector-borne diseases.