Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective

TLDR

Strategic thinking consists of a knowledge base, problem representation, and inference processes, but more experience is needed to develop precise cognitive analysis procedures. The study examines the promises and challenges of applying a cognitive approach to strategic planning and subjective forecasting. The authors review and evaluate network representations, production systems, causal maps, and argumentation analyses for modeling strategic thinking, discussing their strengths, weaknesses, and implementation. Analysis of these components shows they can aid managerial problem solving, and the authors conclude that even now, a cognitive approach yields significant benefits.

Abstract

Abstract The promises and challenges of a cognitive approach to strategic planning and subjective forecasting are examined. Strategic thinking is viewed as comprising three components: (1) knowledge base, (2) problem representation, and (3) inference processes linking the first two. Analysis of these components, it is argued, can be an important aid to understanding and guiding managerial problem solving. We review several techniques for modeling strategic thinking and planning, including network representations, production systems, causal maps, and analyses of argumentation. We consider the strengths and weaknesses of different cognitive analysis techniques and discuss how they might be implemented. Much more experience and refinement will be needed to produce well‐specified procedures for cognitive analysis of planning. We conclude, however, that even at the current stage of development, significant benefits can accrue from a cognitive approach to strategic planning.