Unemployment, Hysteresis and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

Abstract

I Introduction Rod Cross et al, University of St. Andrews II Reflections on Hysteresis and the Natural Rate 1. The Irrelevance of the Natural Rate: Lawrence Summers (Harvard University) 2. On the History of Hysteresis: Rod Cross (University of St. Andrews) III The Characteristics of the Unemployed 1. Unemployment, Vacancies and the Long-Term Unemployed: Peter Smith (L.B.S.) Paul Levine (South Bank Polytechnic), Alan Budd (L.B.S.) 2. Characteristics of the Long-Term Unemployed: Evidence from the Labour Force Survey: Stephen Creigh (Department of Employment) 3. Is Unemployment Irreversible?: Peter R. Hughes (Department of Employment) Gillian Hutchinson (Queen Mary College, London) IV Analysis of Hysteresis Effects 1. Union Activity and Wage-Employment Movements: Assar Lindbeck (Institute for International Studies, University of Stockholm) and Dennis Snower (Birkbeck College, London) 2. A Simple Model of Imperfect Competition with Walrasian Features: Huw Dixon (Birkbeck College, London) 3. Unemployment and Worker Quality: Simon Price (University of Bristol) 4. Screening in Labour Markets with Heterogeneous Workers: Inge Schnell (University of Bonn and L.S.E.) IV Hysteresis Effects and the Explanation of Aggregate Unemployment 1. Testing for Multiple Natural Rates of Unemployment in the British Economy: Alan Carruth (University of Kent) and Andrew Oswald (Centre for Labour Economics, L.S.E.) 2. Why is Wage Inflation in Britain so High?: Stephen Nickell (University of Oxford) 3. Phillips Curve Estimates Incorporating a Natural Rate with Hysteresis Effects: David Coe (O.E.C.D.) 4. Hysteresis and European Unemployment: Olivier Blanchard (M.I.T.) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University) 5. The Natural Rate: Empirical Fact or Theoretical Straitjacket: Tim Jenkinson (Merton College, Oxford) IV Panel Discussion: The Implications of Hysteresis Effects For Unemployment Policy 1. David Stanton (Employment Market Research Unit, Department of Employment) 2. Charles Adams (I.M.F.) 3. Marcus Miller (University of Warwick) 4. Peter McGregor (Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde)