Medical Assessment by a Delphi Group Opinion Technic

TLDR

The Delphi technique is a method for eliciting expert opinions on uncertain questions. The study demonstrates the Delphi technique’s use for reaching consensus on predicting human mortality from liver trauma induced by a riot control device in animals. Surgeons estimated mortality based on injury severity, and the estimates were refined through a second Delphi round. The Delphi rounds improved consistency and reliability of mortality estimates, despite remaining uncertainties. N Engl J Med 288:1272–1275, 1973.

Abstract

Abstract The Delphi technic is a method for obtaining answers to questions that are issues of uncertainty even to experts. Its use for finding a group consensus is illustrated here by its application to a problem of predicting human mortality from an experiment in which trauma to the liver was produced in animals by a riotcontrol device. Expert surgeons were asked to fill in a questionnaire in which they estimated human mortality as a function of the severity of the injury. These initial estimates were then modified by application of a second round of the Delphi technic. Although inherent uncertainties remained, there was a marked increase in the consistency of the answers from the first to the second round. Evidence suggests an increase in reliability as well. (N Engl J Med 288:1272–1275, 1973)