Climate change and diseases of food crops

TLDR

Climate change is projected to progressively reduce food crop yields, with plant pathogens responding variably—some limited by temperature, others potentially benefiting from higher CO₂—leading to a complex, largely negative impact on crop productivity. The study aims to conduct a systematic quantitative analysis of climate change effects on pathogens of wheat, rice, soybean, and potato to guide future disease‑management strategies. This analysis is based on a review of published literature and ongoing unpublished work examining qualitative climate impacts on these four major food crops. Current limited data indicate that climate change can have positive, negative, or neutral effects on pathogen performance, depending on the specific host–pathogen interaction.

Abstract

Despite complex regional patterns of projected climate change, significant decreases in food crop yields have been predicted using the ‘worst case’ CO 2 emission scenario (A1FI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Overall, climate change is predicted to have a progressively negative effect on the yield of food crops, particularly in the absence of efforts to mitigate global CO 2 emissions. As with all species, plant pathogens will have varying responses to climate change. Whilst the life cycle of some pathogens will be limited by increasing temperatures, e.g. Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici , other climatic factors such as increasing atmospheric CO 2 , may provide more favourable conditions for pathogens such as Fusarium pseudograminearum. Based on published literature and unpublished work in progress, we have reviewed the qualitative effects of climate change on pathogens that cause disease of four major food crops: wheat, rice, soybean and potato. The limited data show that the influence will be positive, negative or neutral, depending on the host–pathogen interaction. Quantitative analysis of climate change on pathogens of these crops is largely lacking, either from field or laboratory studies or from modelling‐based assessments. Systematic quantitative analysis of these effects will be necessary in developing future disease management plans, such as plant breeding, altered planting schedules, chemical and biological control methods and increased monitoring for new disease threats.