Forecasting the nursing workforce in a dynamic health care market.

Abstract

The ability to discern the interacting factors that affect supply and demand for nurses could help nurse educators and nurse leaders allocate resources to meet these needs. Forecasting models must take into account the interactions of three crucial groups of health care providers--physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician's assistants. Buerhaus has noted that market size, wages, preferences for nursing services, and availability of substitutes influence the demand for nursing services. Changes in nurse supply resulting from Medicare reimbursement for nursing services have not been studied, though it could safely be projected that such reimbursement will increase nurse supply. Nurses with baccalaureate degrees and advanced practice preparation will be in the greatest demand in ambulatory care, managed care, public health, and home care settings, raising concerns again that the educational mix is in need of adjustment upwards.