The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well‐identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the M w =8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the M w =7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high‐frequency sources inferred by back‐projection analysis. Both the main shock and the M w =7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.