Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP)--Cumulative and Worst-Case Event Fluences

TLDR

Solar proton events can damage spacecraft electronics and solar arrays, so designers must evaluate microelectronic performance under varied conditions, and several methods exist to predict cumulative fluences, worst‑case events, and flux distributions. The ESP model, developed by NRL and NASA Goddard, predicts cumulative and worst‑case solar proton fluences based on mission duration and confidence level.

Abstract

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.