Can Cooperation Survive Changes in Bargaining Power? The Case of Coffee

Abstract

Most efforts at international cooperation are heavily conditioned by the relative bargaining power of the states involved. But often states expect their bargaining power to change over time. Can cooperation survive such changes—especially when they are unpredictable? I argue that the detailed provisions of international agreements, when chosen carefully, can help states take account of such changing political realities. In particular, I present a theory of optimal duration and renegotiation provisions in light of shocks to relative bargaining power. I then consider cooperation in the international coffee market, thereby illustrating two of the substantive implications of the theory, and briefly discuss other international agreements. Finally, I draw conclusions about the conditions under which international law can affect international cooperation, a topic hotly debated by international law scholars and political scientists.