Concepedia

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting is a forecasting methodology within meteorological science that, as a distinct approach under weather prediction, provides quantitative estimates of the likelihood of specific weather outcomes by characterizing uncertainty through probability distributions rather than deterministic single-value predictions.

403

Publications

28.6K

Citations

1.1K

Authors

413

Institutions

Publications per year

2017–2026

146

Parents

Publications

403

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles

Adrian E. Raftery, Tilmann Gneiting, Fadoua Balabdaoui et al. · Monthly Weather Review · 2005 · 2K citations · Full text

, , +17

Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness

Tilmann Gneiting, Fadoua Balabdaoui, Adrian E. Raftery · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · 2007 · 1.7K citations

, , +16

The Comparison and Evaluation of Forecasters

Morris H. DeGroot, Stephen E. Fienberg · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician) · 1983 · 606 citations

, , +16

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

Philippe Bougeault, Zoltán Tóth, Craig H. Bishop et al. · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · 2010 · 479 citations · Full text

, , +15

FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

Jaideep Pathak, Shashank Subramanian, Peter Harrington et al. · arXiv (Cornell University) · 2022 · 449 citations · Full text

, , +17

1–5 of 403

Authors

1.1K

  1. AH
    Allan H. Murphy

    Oregon State University, United States

    18 publications · 1.5K citations

    15

    h-index

  2. TG
    Tilmann Gneiting

    University of Washington, United States

    14 publications · 5.4K citations

    13

    h-index

  3. AE
    Adrian E. Raftery

    University of Washington, United States

    11 publications · 4.9K citations

    11

    h-index

  4. RL
    Robert L. Winkler

    Duke University, United States

    9 publications · 1.2K citations

    9

    h-index

  5. DS
    Daniel S. Wilks

    Cornell University, United States

    8 publications · 287 citations

    8

    h-index

1–5 of 1.1K

Institutions

413

  1. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

    Reading, United Kingdom

    19 h-index

    33 publications

    3.7K citations

  2. University of Oklahoma

    Norman, United States

    16 h-index

    60 publications

    3.1K citations

  3. NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

    Boulder, United States

    16 h-index

    35 publications

    6.1K citations

  4. University of Washington

    Seattle, United States

    15 h-index

    43 publications

    15K citations

  5. Met Office

    Exeter, United Kingdom

    14 h-index

    65 publications

    4.6K citations

  6. NOAA National Weather Service

    Silver Spring, United States

    12 h-index

    25 publications

    1.7K citations

  7. NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory

    Norman, United States

    11 h-index

    40 publications

    2.1K citations

  8. Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies

    Norman, United States

    10 h-index

    34 publications

    1.7K citations

1–8 of 413

Venues

  1. Weather and Forecasting

    44 publications · 2.8K citations

    29

    h-index

  2. Monthly Weather Review

    42 publications · 5.2K citations

    27

    h-index

  3. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

    BAMS · 20 publications · 1.6K citations

    16

    h-index

  4. Meteorological Applications

    15 publications · 841 citations

    14

    h-index

  5. 11

    h-index

1–5