Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form and function. Forests provide a range of ecosystem services, and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used to derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions and project species distribution shifts under climate change. In this study, we model the current and future habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus nigra, Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto and Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from the EU-Forest database, enhanced with data from Greece that is currently under-represented in terms of tree species occurrence points. By including these additional presence data, areas with relatively drier conditions for some of the study species were included in the SDM development, yielding a potentially lower vulnerability under climate change conditions. SDMs were developed for each taxon using climate and soil data at a resolution of ~1 km². Model performance was assessed under current conditions and was found to adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, the models were used to project the potential distribution of each species under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in habitat-suitable areas was predicted for most study species, with higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced potential habitat shrinkages. An exception was the endemic A. cephalonica and its sister species A. borisii-regis, which, although currently found at mid and high elevations, seem able to maintain their potential distribution under most climate change scenarios. Our findings suggest that climate change could significantly affect the distribution and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Greece, with important ecological, economic and social implications, and thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.

Theano Koufaki

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