Antecedent Moisture Condition Probabilities

Abstract

The problem of selecting an appropriately conservative Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) when using the Soil Conservation Service curve number method or the Illinois Urban program for prediction is considered. Daily rainfall data from 17 stations in Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee are analyzed to find the probability of the various Antecedent Moisture Conditions during the growing season at each station. Regression equations are proposed relating these probabilities to average annual precipitation in areas having similar rainfall amounts and distributions.