Climate risk assessment and management in agriculture.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION Climate risk in agriculture represents the probability of a defined hydro-meteorological hazard affecting the livelihood of farmers, livestock herders, fishers and forest dwellers. Risk refers to a probability that can be estimated from prior information, while uncertainty applies to situations in which probability cannot be estimated. Both risks and uncertainties contribute to choice of appropriate management practices by the decision-makers in agriculture. Farmers to some extent understand the risks and uncertainties of climate at their location and optimize the management practices based on years of experience. However, growing demand, changing climatic conditions, intensification and spread of agriculture to marginal production environments warrants improved climate risk management and decision support systems to enable appropriate choice of practices and strategies to match the current and future climate risks. According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)1 , climate risk management (CRM) refers to the use of climate information in a multidisciplinary scientific context to cope with climate’s impacts on development and resource management problems. Further, IRI’s definition elaborates that climate risk management covers a broad range of potential actions, including earlyresponse systems, strategic diversification, dynamic resource-allocation rules, financial instruments, infrastructure design and capacity building. CRM is the use of climate information to cope with possible impacts of climate change on development and resource management (African Development Forum, 2010). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)2, climate-related risk management refers to appropriate climate information distribution through an efficient delivery system that can alert food officials to assure food and water security long before the actual natural hazard sets in. WMO has initiated development of a concept of CRM and is developing examples of best practices already in use in different parts of the world, especially in water and agriculture sectors. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2011) CRM refers to different aspects of the risk management process, including: (a) risk assessments for informed decision-making; (b) risk reduction: planning and preparation; and (c) risk sharing, pooling and transfer in the context of adaptation. The World Bank (2006) defines CRM as assessment of threats and