Impact of weather on commuter cyclist behaviour and implications for climate change adaptation

Abstract

Within the transport sector, much of the climate change research conducted to date has focussed on mitigation. This includes for example, strategies to reduce emissions from our transport system that is heavily dependent on carbon based fuels. Adaptation research is now expanding in the transport sector with most effort addressing issues such as the vulnerability of infrastructure to higher sea levels or more frequent and severe storms. An area of adaptation that has received little attention in the literature relates to how individuals will adjust their travel behaviour in the face of changes in weather and climate. This paper examines the relationship between weather and travel behaviour with an emphasis on bicycling. Evidence from the literature is used to highlight how weather and climate affect active transport users. Examination of result from an aggregate bicycle demand model, developed using Melbourne data, confirms that around half of the variations in bicyclist volume can be explained by the changes in weather parameters. A non-linear effect on ridership of key weather parameters, specifically rainfall and temperature, is identified. This paper assesses adaptation behaviour in face of weather and climate change and it has important implications for government strategies that seek to increase the role of active transport in urban areas.