Drought, Political Exclusion, and Civil War

Abstract

Dominant climate models suggest that large parts of Africa will experience greater climatic variability and increasing rates of drought in coming decades. This could have severe societal consequences as the economies and food supplies of most African countries depend on rain-fed agriculture. According to leading environmental security scholars, policy makers, and NGOs, an increase in scarcity-driven armed conflicts should also be expected. Drawing on these arguments, we present a conditional theory of environmental conflict predicting that drought increases the risk of civil war primarily when it strikes vulnerable and politically marginalized populations in agrarian societies. This general proposition is evaluated empirically through a unique gridded dataset of post-colonial Africa that combines high-resolution meteorological data with georeferenced data on civil war onset and the local ethno-political context. Despite popular conception, we find little evidence of a drought-conflict connection. Instead, the local risk of civil war can be explained by sociopolitical and geographic factors: a politically marginalized population, high infant mortality, proximity to international borders, and high local population density. Pre-proof version of published article. Please cite: Theisen, Ole Magnus, Helge Holtermann, and Halvard Buhaug. 2011/12. Climate wars? Assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict. International Security 36(3): 79–106.