Sketch Model to Forecast Heavy-Rail Ridership

Abstract

Ridership potential is a critical attribute in the feasibility stage of a transit project development. While general guidance exists to determine the transit mode most appropriate for various employment and residential densities, no simple sketch-level tool is available to predict the range of ridership values for a heavy-rail alignment. Sketch-level light and commuter rail ridership models occur in Transportation Research Record, No. 1986, titled “Sketch Models to Forecast Commuter and Light Rail Ridership, Update to TCRP Report 16.” Current publication provides the third rail-based mode ridership estimation tool. This analysis develops a sketch-level ridership forecasting tool for heavy-rail for medium and smaller size cities (those with population less than three million). It uses current ridership, demographic and transportation-system data from ten U.S. cities, including 32 heavy-rail corridors, and 474 stations, while it tests 186 possible explanatory variables. The efforts yield a linear multivariate regression equation that show close relationships between actual and predicted values with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.612. The new sketch model for heavy rail can be used in place of a full-blown four-step modeling approach and requires only ArcGIS and Microsoft Excel. The data required for this model is readily available from Metropolitan Planning Organizations and/or the U.S. Census Bureau. Combining this heavy-rail model with the existing light rail and commuter rail models opens a wealth of opportunities for inexpensive methods to predict the ridership potential for rail-based development as well as the impacts on station ridership by new residential and commercial development close to stations.