The Circular Economy and Climate Change: The State of National and Global Evidence on Mitigation Potential

Abstract

While global resource use and GHG emissions keep increasing, the circular economy (CE) has ascended to the forefront of global policy, business and research agendas. Through narrower, slower, and more closed material cycles, the CE aims to avoid waste and reduce virgin raw material demand, thereby potentially also mitigating energy demand and GHG emissions. We review 75 national to global studies modeling over 500 specific measures. Studies modeling narrower, slower, and more closed material cycles show a combined GHG mitigation potential of on average 17% (0–91%). When CE measures are complemented with energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy supply and industry, an average GHG mitigation potential of 50% (1–100%) is found. This indicates that the CE might have substantial mitigation potentials if combined wisely with other supply- and demand-side measures. Future research should strengthen the links between industrial ecology and economic modeling and fully implement open science principles. These improvements would pave the way toward a more robust, granular, and systemic understanding of the CE's potential and limits for climate change mitigation and sustainable resource use.