Association between COVID-19 and the development of chronic kidney disease in patients without initial acute kidney injury

Abstract

While the association between COVID-19 and acute kidney injury (AKI) is well documented, the impact of COVID-19 on the development of advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains unclear, particularly in patients without initial AKI. Using the TriNetX healthcare database, we conducted a matched cohort study comparing 141,587 COVID-19 and 141,587 influenza patients. We excluded patients with AKI within one month of infection and matched groups on demographics, comorbidities, and baseline laboratory values. The primary outcome was the incidence of advanced CKD (stages 3–5) at the 12-month follow-up. COVID-19 patients showed higher 12-month risks of advanced CKD (hazard ratio [HR]:2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.69–2.42, p < 0.0001), AKI (HR 3.04, 95%CI:2.61–3.55, p < 0.0001), and estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (HR:3.01, 95%CI:2.74–3.30, p < 0.0001) compared to influenza patients. Subgroup analyses showed consistently elevated risks across sexes and in patients over 45 years, while younger patients did not demonstrate an increased risk of advanced CKD at the 12-month follow-up. Diabetes mellitus and hypertension have emerged as the strongest predictors of advanced CKD development. In conclusion, COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk of long-term renal dysfunction compared with influenza, suggesting the need for extended monitoring of kidney function in high-risk populations.