Discussion on Major Drought Issues in the Northern Drought-Prone Belt in China

Abstract

Abstract In northern China, the transition zone affected by summer monsoon and its neighboring areas frequently experience drought events. Especially since the twenty-first century, the number of major drought events in this region has significantly increased, making it a notable drought-prone area known as the northern drought-prone belt (NDPB). Till now, major drought events in this area have profoundly impacted China’s historical progress and socioeconomic development. In fact, similar drought-prone belts are common in other monsoon transition zones globally, making it highly relevant and scientifically valuable to study the major drought issues in this region. Therefore, we discuss the major drought issues in the NDPB for the first time, comprehensively analyze the basic characteristics of the NDPB, systematically review the main stages of drought research in northern China, and identify scientific challenges currently faced in major drought research in the NDPB. Based on this and in line with the current forefront of Earth system science research, we outline five research directions and their basic approaches, including scientific experimental research focusing on major droughts in the NDPB, the impact of multifactor atmospheric circulation interactions on major drought formation, mechanisms promoting major drought development through the land–atmosphere coupling, the synergistic mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation and land–atmosphere coupling on major droughts, and fine monitoring technology and prediction methods for the full-chain progression of major droughts that have multifactor collaborative impacts. This research work holds significant scientific reference value for promoting innovative breakthroughs in the theory of major drought formation and monitoring and prediction techniques in northern China. Significance Statement Since the twenty-first century, the northern China drought-prone belt has seen a significant increase in severe and extreme drought events. However, there has never been a dedicated discussion on the major drought issues in this unique region. Our manuscript is the first to propose the scientific concept of the northern China drought-prone belt. By understanding the basic characteristics of this region’s climate and environment and identifying the main scientific challenges encountered in major drought research, we suggest several key research directions and fundamental approaches. This work offers new insights into future in-depth studies on mechanisms behind major drought occurrences in northern China and methods for their monitoring and prediction.