Impact of climate change on energy performance and energy conservation measures effectiveness in Australian office buildings

Abstract

The substantial energy consumption and carbon footprint of office buildings requires effective energy conservation measures (ECMs) in their design. However, climate change is expected to impact building performance and influence the effectiveness of ECMs. This paper examined the impact of climate change on office buildings in ten Australian cities, representing diverse climatic conditions. Energy simulations were conducted using Grasshopper with Ladybug tools in Rhino for a 10-storey office building, followed by a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of ECMs under global warming. Results revealed significant increases in cooling demands, particularly in warmer regions, with projected rises of up to 38 % under the SSP585_2080 scenario. Heating demand is expected to decrease by 48–81 % for all cases. Climate change may shift regions like Hobart from heating-dominated to cooling-oriented. Building greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to be reduced by up to 70 % by 2080 due to electricity decarbonization. Sensitivity analysis underscores the importance of solar control measures and internal heat gains in hot regions like Darwin, where their impact will be amplified by climate change. However, in regions like Hobart, where significant climatic transitions are expected by 2080, the effectiveness of ECMs becomes complex due to trade-offs between heating and cooling needs. Effective ECMs currently favor solar gain but may shift to solar control in the future, emphasizing the need for a life cycle perspective and flexible ECMs to ensure long-term efficiency. This research offers new knowledge about potential shifts in building energy demand and effective ECMs under global warming that can be utilized by architects, engineers, and policymakers. • Cooling demands will rise by 36–85 % while heating needs will drop by 48–81 % under SSP585_2080. • Future climate may shift heating-dominated regions into cooling-dominant environments. • ECM benefits present may be ineffective in the future, and vice versa. • Solar controls to reduce cooling in hot areas will be more pronounced in the future. • Dynamic GHG projections indicate the potential for up to 70 % reduction in emissions.