Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of New-Quality Productivity

Abstract

New-quality productivity (NQP) serves as a critical indicator for measuring the level of high-quality economic development. Gaining insights into the spatial and temporal patterns along with the key drivers of NQP is essential for promoting the global industrial transformation and revitalizing old cities. This study utilized spatial analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chains, and optimal parameter geographical detectors to analyze spatial patterns and influencing factors of NQP across 271 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2021. Findings reveal that the average index of NQP increased from 0.045 in 2011 to 0.072 in 2021, with spatial patterns showing higher levels in coastal regions compared to inland areas. The overall disparity of NQP has diminished, although significant internal imbalances persist, particularly in the eastern region, where the pronounced gap between eastern and central areas remains the primary source of variation. Local NQP development is strongly influenced by proximity to adjacent areas, characterized by path dependence and club convergence effects. Additionally, cultural foundation, urbanization, and economic development play pivotal roles in fostering NQP, with their interactions exhibiting notable nonlinear and dual-factor enhancement effects. These findings provide valuable theoretical and practical insights for advancing NQP levels in China and globally.