Combining host immune response biomarkers and clinical scores for early prediction of sepsis in infection patients

Abstract

Background The performance of host immune responses biomarkers and clinical scores was compared to identify infection patient populations at risk of progression to sepsis, ICU admission and mortality.Methods Immune response biomarkers were measured and NEWS, SIRS, and MEWS. Logistic and Cox regression models were employed to evaluate the strength of association.Results IL-10 and NEWS had the strongest association with sepsis development, whereas IL-6 and CRP had the strongest association with ICU admission and in-hospital mortality. IL-6 [HR (95%CI) = 2.68 (1.61–4.46)] was associated with 28-day mortality. Patient subgroups with high IL-10 (≥ 5.03 pg/ml) and high NEWS (> 5 points) values had significantly higher rates of sepsis development (88.3% vs 61.1%; p < 0.001), in-hospital mortality (35.0% vs. 16.7%; p < 0.001), 28-day mortality (25.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001), and ICU admission (66.7% vs. 38.9%; p < 0.001).Conclusions Patients exhibiting low severity signs of infection but high IL-10 levels showed an elevated probability of developing sepsis. Combining IL-10 with the NEWS score provides a reliable tool for predicting the progression from infection to sepsis at an early stage. Utilizing IL-6 in the emergency room can help identify patients with low NEWS or SIRS scores.