War and warming: The effects of climate change on military conflicts in developing countries (1995–2020)

Abstract

Numerous studies have explored the links between climate change and military conflicts. This study delves into the types and intensities of conflicts likely caused by climate change in developing countries from 1995 to 2020. Through a country-year panel analysis, it isolates the impact of rising global greenhouse gas emissions on conflict occurrence. Findings consistently show a significant positive association between greenhouse gas emissions and military conflicts, especially low-intensity and internationalized intrastate conflicts. Additional tests confirm these results' robustness, including heterogeneity analysis, substitution of key explanatory variables, sensitivity analysis, and alternative analytical methods. The analysis highlights how environmental scarcity due to climate change drives small-scale conflicts within countries, while geopolitics and environmental scarcity also lead to internationalized intrastate wars. The study recommends that developed countries and the international community support developing countries in building resilience against climate change and advocates for collaborative efforts to mitigate its adverse effects on global security. • Examines the effect of climate change on the occurrence of military conflicts. • Climate change cause low-intensity and internationalized intrastate conflicts. • Does not cause high-intensity, interstate, or intrastate conflicts. • Internationalized intrastate conflicts have been increasing over time. • Environmental scarcity would encourage military conflict.