Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa

TLDR

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub‑Saharan Africa. Historical data show that warmer years in Africa significantly raise civil‑war likelihood, and climate projections indicate a ~54% rise in conflict incidence by 2030—potentially adding 393,000 battle deaths—highlighting an urgent need for policy reform by governments and aid donors.

Abstract

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.