Individual Prognostication of Disease Activity and Disability Worsening in Multiple Sclerosis With Retinal Layer Thickness <i>z</i> Scores

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: scores of OCT-derived measures to prognosticate future disease activity and disability worsening in people with MS (PwMS). METHODS: scores (pRNFL-z and GCIP-z) based on the reference data. Finally, we investigated the association of pRNFL-z or GCIP-z as predictors with future confirmed disability worsening (Expanded Disability Status Scale score increase) or disease activity (failing of the no evidence of disease activity [NEDA-3] criteria) as outcomes. Cox proportional hazards models or logistic regression analyses were applied according to the original studies. Optimal cutoffs were identified using the Akaike information criterion as well as location with the log-rank and likelihood-ratio tests. RESULTS: score approach with optimal cutoffs showed better performance in discrimination and calibration (higher Harrell's concordance index and lower integrated Brier score). DISCUSSION: scores that account for age, a major driver for disease progression in MS, to be a promising approach for creating OCT-derived measures useable across devices and toward individualized prognostication.