Precipitation exacerbates spatial heterogeneity in the propagation time of meteorological drought to soil drought with increasing soil depth

Abstract

Abstract The propagation of meteorological droughts to soil droughts poses a substantial threat to water resources, agricultural production, and social systems. Understanding drought propagation process is crucial for early warning and mitigation, but mechanisms of the propagation from meteorological drought to soil drought, particularly at varying soil depths, remain insufficiently understood. Here, we employ the maximum correlation coefficient method and the random forest (RF) model to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of propagation time (PT) from meteorological drought to soil drought at four different depths across China from 1980 to 2018. Our findings reveal consistently higher PT in northern China and lower PT in southern China across varying soil depths, with more pronounced spatial heterogeneity with increasing soil depth. Furthermore, we identify temperature and precipitation as determinants of spatial patterns of PT in surface and deeper soil layers, respectively. Additionally, precipitation emerges as the dominant factor influencing changes in PT between different soil layers. Our study highlights a discernible shift in PT drivers from temperature to precipitation as soil depth increases and the significant impact of precipitation on exacerbating spatial heterogeneity in PT. This study contributes to an enhanced comprehension of the propagation process from meteorological drought to soil drought at different depths, which can aid in establishing practical drought mitigation measures and early warning systems.