Venous thromboembolism in patients with acute myeloid leukemia: development of a predictive model

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are at increased risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE). However, thromboprophylaxis is largely underused. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine possible VTE development risk factors and to develop a novel predictive model. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with newly diagnosed AML. We used univariate and multivariable logistic regression to estimate binary outcomes and identify potential predictors. Based on our final model, a dynamic nomogram was constructed with the goal of facilitating VTE probability calculation. RESULTS: Out of 626 eligible patients with AML, 72 (11.5%) developed VTE during 6 months of follow-up. Six parameters were independent predictors: male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.077-2.065), prior history of thrombotic events (OR 2.27, 95% CI: 1.4-4.96), international normalized ratio (OR 0.21, 95% CI: 0.05-0.95), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (OR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.53-0.94), and intensive therapy (OR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.07-3.91). The C statistics for the model was 0.68. The model was adequately calibrated and internally validated. The decision-curve analysis suggested the use of thromboprophylaxis in patients with VTE risks between 8 and 20%. CONCLUSION: We developed a novel and convenient tool that may assist clinicians in identifying patients whose VTE risk is high enough to warrant thromboprophylaxis.