Quantitative Analysis of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Vegetation Variations in the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve from 1986 to 2021

Abstract

Rapid climate variability and intense human activities generate obvious impacts on the Qilian Mountains ecosystem. The time series of fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) from 1986 to 2021 were used to quantify the impact of climate variability and human activities on vegetation variations in the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve (QMNNR), using 3147 land satellite images based on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform. The contributions of climate variability and human activities to FVC were quantified using multiple regression residual analysis. Partial correlation and correlation methods were used to quantify the impact of temperature, precipitation, and human activity footprints on FVC. The results showed that from 1986 to 2021, the increase rate of FVC was 1.7 × 10−3 y−1, and the high vegetation coverage of the FVC was mainly distributed in the southeastern part of the reserve. In contrast, the low vegetation coverage was mainly distributed in the northwest part of the reserve. The Mann–Kendall mutation test found that the year of 2009 was the year of the mutation. The growth rate of FVC from 2010 to 2021 was greater than that from 1986 to 2009. In addition, climate variability and human activities exhibited a remarkable spatial heterogeneity in FVC changes. Climate variability and human activities contributed 49% and 51% to the increase in FVC in the reserve, respectively, and the contribution of human activities was greater than that of climate variability. The warming and humidification phenomena in the reserve were obvious. However, precipitation was the dominant factor affecting the dynamic changes in FVC. This study improves our understanding of the response of vegetation dynamics to the climate and human activities in the QMNNR.