Carotid total plaque area as an independent predictor of short-term subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis progression and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events

Abstract

Background: The use of ultrasound-based methods for imaging of subclinical atherosclerosis, including measurement of carotid plaque burden (cPB), is a promising direction for further improvement of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) prediction. Objectives: The aim of the study was to research the prognostic values’ significance of cPB indicators with regard to the short-term progression of polyvascular subclinical atherosclerosis and the long-term onset of MACCE. Design: Single-center prospective cohort study. Methods: The study included patients 40–64 years of age. All patients underwent duplex scanning (DS) of the carotid and lower limb arteries. The following cPB indicators were determined: carotid plaque score (cPS), maximum carotid plaque thickness (cPTmax), and carotid total plaque area (cTPA). The combined endpoint included the following components: cardiovascular death; nonfatal myocardial infarction; nonfatal stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA); revascularization of the coronary and/or peripheral arteries. Results: The study included 387 patients, among whom 142 (36.7%) patients underwent repeated DS after 12–24 months. The median follow-up time was 20.0 (13.0; 36.5) months. MACCE were recorded in 33 (8.52%) of patients. cTPA and cPTmax, but not cPS, were independently associated with the progression of subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis over a period of 13.9 months of follow-up. cTPA, but not cPTmax and cPS, was independently associated with the development of MACCE over a period of 20.0 months of follow-up. Only a cTPA > 42.0 mm 2 proved to be an independent predictor of both the progression of subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis and MACCE. Conclusion: In patients from 40 to 64 years of age with various cardiovascular risks, among the indicators of the cPB, only an increase in cTPA > 42.0 mm 2 was shown to be independently associated with an increase in the relative risk (RR) of progression of subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis by 2.38 (1.08–5.25) times, as well as with the development of MACCE by 3.10 (1.54–6.26) times.