Seismic Risk Analysis of Subway Station Structures Combining the Epistemic Uncertainties from Both Seismic Hazard and Numerical Simulation

Abstract

ABSTRACTTo consider the influence of epistemic uncertainties in both seismic hazard and numerical simulation on seismic risk of subway station structures, the uncertainties mentioned above are uniformly characterized as the epistemic uncertainty of seismic demand of subway station structures from the perspective of uncertainty propagation in this paper. On this basis, the analytical formulations of seismic risk considering simultaneous aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are derived. The validity of the derived analytical formulations is verified by the Monte Carlo simulation and the influences of epistemic uncertainty on the seismic risk of subway station structure are further discussed.KEYWORDS: Subway station structurealeatory uncertaintyepistemic uncertaintyuncertainty propagationseismic riskMonte Carlo simulation AcknowledgmentsThe authors gratefully acknowledge financial supports from the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant number: 2021YFB2601102) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number: 52178315 & 51578100).Disclosure StatementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Data Availability StatementThe data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant [2021YFB2601102], the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant [52178315 & 51578100].