Role of North Atlantic Tripole SST in Mid‐Winter Reversal of NAO

Abstract

Abstract North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a significant impact on surrounding winter weather and climate. However, the causes of its occasional reversal between early and late winter remain unclear. This study proposes a mechanism for the mid‐winter reversal of NAO from the perspective of local midlatitude air‐sea interaction. Strong sea surface temperature (SST) tripole events, which are defined by empirical orthogonal function of winter‐mean interannual North Atlantic SST anomalies, are primarily induced by NAO in early winter and peak in January. In late winter, the persistent SST tripole exerts active feedback on atmosphere through diabatic heat and transient eddy forcing. The resulting atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit an almost reversed NAO pattern in February, which forms a wavetrain originating above the Gulf Stream and propagating to the Middle East and weakens the former SST tripole. Consequently, significant reversals of air temperature anomalies occur in Europe and the Caspian Sea area between February and December.