Machine Learning Predicts the Methane Clumped Isotopologue (¹²CH₂D₂) Distributions Constrain Biogeochemical Processes and Estimates the Potential Budget

Abstract

Methane (CH 4 ) is a matter of environmental concern; however, global methane isotopologue data remain inadequate. This is due to the challenges posed by high-resolution testing technology and the need for larger sample volumes. Here, worldwide methane clumped isotope databases ( n = 465) were compiled. We compared machine-learning (ML) models and used random forest (RF) to predict new Δ 12 CH 2 D 2 distributions, which cover valuable and hard-to-replicate methane clumped isotope experimental data. Our RF model yields a reliable and continuous database including ruminants, acetoclastic methane, multiple pyrolysis, and controlled experiments. We showed the effectiveness of utilizing a new data set to quantify isotopologue fractionations in biogeochemical methane processes, as well as predicting the steady-state atmospheric methane clumped isotope composition (Δ 13 CH 3 D of +2.26 ± 0.71‰ and Δ 12 CH 2 D 2 of +62.06 ± 4.42‰) with notable biological contributions. Our measured summer and winter water emitted gases ( n = 6) demonstrated temperature-driven seasonal microbial community evolution determined by atmospheric clumped isotope temporal variations (Δ 13 CH 3 D ∼ −0.91 ± 0.25 ‰ and Δ 12 CH 2 D 2 ∼ +3.86 ± 0.84 ‰), which in turn is relevant for future models quantifying the contribution of methane sources and sinks. Predicting clumped isotopologues translates our methane geochemical understanding into quantifiable variables for modeling that can continue to improve predictions and potentially inform global greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation policy.