Toward the remote monitoring of armed conflicts

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has pushed the role of satellite imagery in armed conflicts into the spotlight. For a long time, satellite images were primarily used for military and intelligence purposes, but today they permeate every aspect of armed conflicts. Their importance in influencing the course of armed conflicts will further grow as progress in deep learning makes automated analysis progressively possible. This article assesses the state of the research working toward the remote monitoring of armed conflicts and highlights opportunities to increase the positive societal impact of future research efforts. First, we map the existing literature, categorizing studies in terms of conflict events that are covered, conflict context and scope, techniques, and types of satellite imagery used to identify conflict events. Second, we discuss how these choices affect opportunities to develop applications for human rights, humanitarian, and peacekeeping actors. Third, we provide an outlook, assessing promising paths forward. While much focus has been on high spatial resolution imagery, we demonstrate why research on freely available satellite images with moderate spatial but high temporal resolution can lead to more scalable and transferable options. We argue that research on such images should be prioritized, as it will have a greater positive impact on society, and we discuss what types of applications may soon become feasible through such research. We call for concerted efforts to compile a large dataset of nonsensitive conflict events to accelerate research toward the remote monitoring of armed conflicts and for interdisciplinary collaboration to ensure conflict-sensitive monitoring solutions.