Analysis of land cover dynamics in Mozambique (2001–2016)

Abstract

Abstract Land cover change (LCC) is a complex and dynamic process influenced by social, economic, and biophysical factors that can cause significant impacts on ecological processes and biodiversity conservation. The assessment of LCC is particularly relevant in a country like Mozambique where livelihood strongly depends on natural resources. In this study, LCC was assessed using a point-based sampling approach through Open Foris Collect Earth (CE), a free and open-source software for land assessment developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This study aimed to conduct an LCC assessment using CE for the entire Mozambique, and according to three different land classifications: administrative boundaries (provinces), ecoregions, and protected vs unprotected areas. A set of 23,938 randomly selected plots, with an area of 0.5 hectares, placed on a 4 × 4 km regular grid over the entire country, was assessed using CE. The analysis showed that Mozambique has gone through significant loss of forest (− 1.3 Mha) mainly to the conversion to cropland. Deforestation is not occurring evenly throughout the country with some provinces, such as Nampula and Zambezia, characterized by higher rates than others, such as Gaza and Niassa. This result can be explained considering a combination of ecological and socio-economic factors, as well as the conservative role played by the protected areas. Our study confirmed that LCC is a complex phenomenon, and the augmented visual interpretation methodology can effectively complement and integrate the LCC analyses conducted using the traditional wall-to-wall mapping to support national land assessment and forest inventories and provide training data for environmental modeling.