Judgment and Decision Making · 2016 · 31 citations · 82 references
Social SciencesDecision SciencesEconomicsBehavioral EconomicsDecision TheoryExperimental EconomicsBehavioral Game TheoryChoice ModelingDiscrete Choice ModelsCurated Data SetsDiscrete Choice Experiment DesignLotteries In GamesLottery ChoiceLottery Choice BehaviorPreference Under Uncertainty
Abstract We explore people’s preferences for numbers in large proprietary data sets from two different lottery games. We find that choice is far from uniform, and exhibits some familiar and some new tendencies and biases. Players favor personally meaningful and situationally available numbers, and are attracted towards numbers in the center of the choice form. Frequent players avoid winning numbers from recent draws, whereas infrequent players chase these. Combinations of numbers are formed with an eye for aesthetics, and players tend to spread their numbers relatively evenly across the possible range.
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Belief in the law of small numbers.
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