Scenario-Based Demand Assessment of Urban Air Mobility in the Greater Munich Area

Abstract

In this work, we project the idea of aerial passenger transport in the near future: on-demand urban air mobility (UAM) for the greater Munich area in the year 2030. We propose a simulation framework that facilitates analyzing the potential demand of UAM. We define five scenarios (ranging from representations of a niche application to a mass transport option) by varying the fleet size, available technologies, infrastructure placement, and pricing strategies. These scenarios are fed into an extended version of the agent-based transport simulation platform MATSim chained with the microscopic transportation orchestrator. The simulation results show that the system configuration has a big impact on UAM demand. The infrastructure capacity and fleet size were identified as the main bottlenecks. We see high levels of demand during peak hours and for trips up to 20 km; however, none of the scenarios result in a sufficiently high modal share of UAM that substantially reduces traffic volumes of ground-based modes, and hence have no significant impact on congestion. Yet, the different trip purposes generate significantly different demands. UAM for airport access could be an especially relevant modal choice in the premium airport-passenger segment. When aiming for an effective and sustainable UAM service, our recommendations are as follows: first, use it to support and improve, rather than cannibalize, existing public transport options; and second, minimize negative impacts on the environment and society to maximize public acceptance.