Detection and Attribution of Human Influence on the Global Diurnal Temperature Range Decline

Abstract

Abstract A decline in the global diurnal temperature range (DTR) and its implications for human and natural systems have been widely reported, yet it remains unclear whether humans have a detectable influence on the DTR and to what extent anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) may be driving such changes. Results indicate that the effect of anthropogenic forcing on the DTR is detectable separately from natural forcing across the globe and in many regions. GHG is the dominant contributor to DTR changes and caused the global DTR to decrease by −0.32°C during 1951–2018, close to the observed change of −0.41°C. Decreased anthropogenic aerosols (AER) increased the DTR in Europe, while increased AER decreased the DTR in Asia. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, further decreases in the DTR are likely to be observed in the future.