An improved emergy ecological footprint method for ecological security assessment and quantitative analysis of influencing factors: a case study of Zhejiang Province

Abstract

A scientific ecological security assessment framework is critical to regional ecological security. This paper improves the emergy ecological footprint model which optimizes the traditional emergy ecological footprint by adding the water supply service, to assess ecological security, and quantitatively analyzed the factors affecting ecological security by partial least squares regression. Zhejiang Province, one of the most developed provinces in China, was selected as a case study. The results show that (1) the emergy carrying capacity (ECC) per capita suffered a reduction from 2004 to 2018. (2) The emergy ecological footprint (EEF) per capita presented a rising trend, with a growth rate of 70.13% from 2004 to 2018. (3) The emergy ecological footprint per capita of biologically productive land has increased except for grassland and waters. (4) There was an ecological surplus in the period of 2004–2009, but an ecological deficit appeared after 2009. (5) The ecological insecurity in Zhejiang Province was increasing, which transformed from a comparably safe state to a relatively unsafe state. (6) The dominant influencing factors affecting Zhejiang’s ecological security were population density, urban built-up area per capita, secondary industry output value, etc. These findings could provide valuable decision support to policy makers in formatting policies on ecological management and sustainable regional development.