Deep Learning Model for Predicting the Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Abstract

Objective This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence model for predicting the pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) using digital pathological images. Background nCRT followed by total mesorectal excision (TME) is a standard treatment strategy for patients with LARC. Predicting the PCR to nCRT of LARC remine difficulty. Methods 842 LARC patients treated with standard nCRT from three medical centers were retrospectively recruited and subgrouped into the training, testing and external validation sets. Treatment response was classified as pCR and non-pCR based on the pathological diagnosis after surgery as the ground truth. The hematoxylin & eosin (H&E)-stained biopsy slides were manually annotated and used to develop a deep pathological complete response (DeepPCR) prediction model by deep learning. Results The proposed DeepPCR model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.710 (95% CI: 0.595, 0.808) in the testing cohort. Similarly, in the external validation cohort, the DeepPCR model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.723 (95% CI: 0.591, 0.844). The sensitivity and specificity of the DeepPCR model were 72.6% and 46.9% in the testing set and 72.5% and 62.7% in the external validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the DeepPCR model was an independent predictive factor of nCRT ( P =0.008 and P =0.004 for the testing set and external validation set, respectively). Conclusions The DeepPCR model showed high accuracy in predicting pCR and served as an independent predictive factor for pCR. The model can be used to assist in clinical treatment decision making before surgery.