Exploring Dependence of COVID-19 on Environmental Factors and Spread Prediction in India

Abstract

Abstract The pandemic of “Corona Virus Disease 2019” or COVID-19 has taken the world by storm. Majority of nations of the world have been challenged by the novel coronavirus, which is supposedly of zoonotic origin and is known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The present work attempts to evaluate the spread of COVID-19 in India. The methodology of assessment uses SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model to establish the impact of socio-behavioural aspect, especially social distancing, affecting the numbers of COVID-19 cases per day. The lockdown initiated by Government of India (GoI) scenario is weighed against a scenario with a possible initiation of community spread due to crowded gatherings in India. The resultant changes, as against the lockdown scenario, has been reported in terms of the increase in the number of cases and stretch of the timeline to mitigate the COVID-19 spread. Impact of environmental factors like temperature and relative humidity have also been analyzed using statistical methods, including Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Correlation. It has been found that the spread of cases is dependent on environmental conditions, i.e. temperature and relative humidity. This study is expected to help the policymakers and stakeholders to device an improved action plan to alleviate the COVID-19 spread, especially in India.