Predicting Change Propagation in Complex Design

Abstract

Abstract In redesign and design for customization, products are changed. During this process a change to one part of the product will, in most cases, result in changes to other parts. The accurate prediction of this change propagation provides a significant challenge in the management of redesign and customization. This paper reports on an analysis of change behavior based on a case study in GKN Westland Helicopters of rotorcraft design; the development of mathematical models to predict the risk of change propagation in terms of likelihood and impact of change; and the development of a prototype computer support tool.