A new social conflict on globalisation-related issues in Germany? A longitudinal perspective

Abstract

We draw on cleavage theory to assess the emergence of a social conflict on globalisation-related issues among the German population between 1989 and 2019. We argue that issue salience and opinion polarisation are key conditions for a successful and sustainable political mobilisation of citizens, and thus for the emergence of a social conflict. In line with globalisation cleavage theory, we hypothesise that issue salience as well as overall and between-group opinion polarisation on globalisation-related issues have increased over time. Our study considers four globalisation-related issues: “Immigration”, “EU”, “Economic liberalism” and “Environment”. While the salience of “EU” and “Economic liberalism” remains low during the observed period, we find a recent increase in the salience of the issues of “Immigration” (since 2015) and “Environment” (since 2018). Furthermore, our results point to rather stable attitudes on globalisation-related issues among the German population: we do not find any consistent evidence of an increase in overall or between-group polarisation over time. In conclusion, the idea of an emerging conflict around globalisation-related issues among the German population finds very little empirical support.