The aging of America. Impact on health care costs

TLDR

The rapid growth of the oldest age groups will have a major impact on future health care costs, and successful containment will depend on preventing or curing the age‑dependent diseases that drive long‑term care needs. The study aims to project future Medicare, nursing home, dementia, and hip fracture costs using current US Census Bureau projections of the oldest age groups. This projection is performed by applying Census growth estimates to cost components for these care settings. The projections indicate that, absent major health improvements, costs will rise enormously—Medicare expenses for the oldest old could increase sixfold by 2040—and cost‑containment strategies alone are unlikely to curb this escalation. JAMA 1990;263:2335-2340.

Abstract

The rapid growth of the oldest age groups will have a major impact on future health care costs. We use current US Census Bureau projections for the growth of our oldest age groups to project future costs for Medicare, nursing homes, dementia, and hip fractures. Without major changes in the health of our older population, these health care costs will escalate enormously, in large part as a result of the projected growth of the "oldest old," those aged 85 years and above. Medicare costs for the oldest old may increase sixfold by the year 2040 (in constant 1987 dollars). It is unlikely that these projected increases in health care costs will be restrained solely by cost-containment strategies. Successful containment of these health care costs will be related to our ability to prevent and/or cure those age-dependent diseases and disorders that will produce the greatest needs for long-term care. (<i>JAMA</i>. 1990;263:2335-2340)