Stock prices, inflation and output: evidence from India

Abstract

A negative relationship between stock market returns and inflationary trends has been widely documented for developed economies in Europe and North America. This study provides similar evidence for India. This relationship is investigated in light of Fama's explanation that centres around linkages between inflation and real activity, and between stock returns and real activity. Specifically, the study tests whether the negative stock return-inflation relationship is explained by a negative relationship between inflation and real economic activity, and a positive relationship between real activity and stock returns. The results from the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation corrected models provide only partial support for Fama's hypothesis. The relationship between real activity and inflation does not account for the negative relationship between real stock returns and the unexpected component of inflation.